![]() ![]() Really, the biggest danger is Notre Dame. The B1G is out of this race unless Ohio State and Michigan State run the table and one of these conference championships comes in with two losses, and even then it'll be pretty close-their non-conference performance was appalling. At present, the Big 12, SEC, and ACC are their main competition, and the Pac-12 is arguably stronger than two of those conferences. Additionally, the four conference champion selection would be the least likely to ruffle feathers around the country (well, ESPN might be mad, but other than that.), and I doubt the Selection Committee wants t start off their tenure with controversy and become as maligned as the BCS out of the gate.Īnd as it's looking like things will be particularly close come December (as it appears to be a 2007-type season), the selection committee will not likely ruffle feathers with the rest of the country and put two SEC teams into the final race.Īnd if it comes down to four conference champions, the Pac-12 will be represented. But this is a Selection Committee, and the Pac-12 is well represented and will definitely have its case heard out. Perhaps if computers were deciding who was to be in the College Football Playoff, this would very much end up with an SEC-heavy unit. Four conference champions for the Playoff is still the likeliest scenario. A lot would have to come undone for them to lose two, although who knows what Jameis Winston will come up for his next act. Notre Dame is the sternest test left (and an Irish victory wouldn't be the greatest thing for the Pac-12 either see below), and only Louisville and Virginia figure to offer any sort of challenge before the conference title game. That being said, of all the one-loss non-SEC teams out there, Florida State would probably still make it (that national championship cache is too strong), and almost everything projects to them winning the ACC as either an undefeated or a one-loss squad. One loss opens them up to all sorts of scrutiny. Their defense was undoubtedly the best in the country last year-they are now a solid unit vulnerable to big plays. The Seminoles aren't quite the same as they were in previous seasons. Florida State is probably in the best shape of anyone, but. Given that the Pac-12 has the stronger conference perception, a two-loss Big 12 champion is going to be eliminated against a two-loss Pac-12 champion, and a one-loss Big 12 champion might be dead even. So is hard to imagine an undefeated Big 12 team in this round robin, and given that they don't play a conference title game, they won't get that extra win that the Pac-12 gets either. ![]() That leaves the door open for Oklahoma or Oklahoma State too. TCU actually has a favorable schedule (road dates against Texas, West Virginia and Iowa State are nothing to fear), but they are big dogs in Waco this week. And the winner is hardly guaranteed anything: Baylor still has to deal with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, with the Oklahoma game in Norman. Only Baylor and TCU are left among the unbeatens, and they play each other this weekend. Everyone in the Big 12 plays each other, meaning only one team can be undefeated at the end of the year. The Big 12 has not accelerated into chaos yet, but don't expect that to last long. The Big 12 plays a round robin, and they lack a conference title game That balance will come in handy down the road. The Pac-12 has clear contenders from the North and the South at the moment. It will take a whole lot of chaos and a CLEAR delineation that these are two of the top four teams in the country for anyone to really consider the possibility of a rematch. And people still remember that LSU-Alabama game, which was an anti-climactic, unsatisfying affair that led to plenty of SEC jeers. It would probably require an LSU-Alabama 2012 situation for two SEC West teams to get in-one team being unbeaten or with one loss, the other team with a narrow loss to first team. But while the SEC West champion can likely pencil themselves into the Final Four (if they win the SEC championship, which would add another layer of disorder to the proceedings), it's not quite as likely that the runner-up can do the same. Had the SEC been more evenly distributed, with good teams coming from both sides of the table, then you might consider the two-team SEC playoff case a lot better. ![]()
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